Authors
Number of participants (n)
Study design
Relapse rate
Significant predictors of relapse
Predictors evaluated but not found to be significant
Recapture rate
CD
Brooks et al. [52]
86
Prospective observational
4.7% (3 months)
Ileocolonic disease
Age, gender, disease behavior, previous surgical resection, immunosuppression at start of anti-TNF-α treatment, disease duration, dose escalation of anti-TNF-α agent, concomitant IMM, raised CRP
93%
18.6% (6 months)
Previous anti-TNF-α treatment
(88% concomitant IMM)
36% (1 year)
Raised fecal calprotectin
Domenech et al. [42]
23
Prospective observational (69% with concomitant IMM)
31% (1 year)
Perianal disease
Gender, smoking status, previous treatment with IFX, concomitant IMM, location, development of infusion acute reactions
–
66% (1 year) for perianal disease
Louis et al. (STORI) [41]
115
Prospective observational (100% with concomitant IMM)
43.9% (1 year)
Male, absence of surgical resection, elevated leucocyte count >6.0 × 109/L, hemoglobin ≤ 145 g/L
Age, smoking status, location, previous resection, disease duration, treatment duration
88%
15% (1 year) for those with ≤2 predictors of relapse
C-reactive protein ≥5.0 mg/L
Fecal calprotectin ≥ 300 μg/g
Reenaers et al. (long-term follow-up of STORI trial) [77]
102/115 (long-term outcome)
Prospective observational (100% with concomitant IMM)
85% (median 8 years)
Upper GI involvement
Not reported (only abstract is available)
40%
Elevated leucocyte count > 6.0 × 109/L
Molnar et al. [43]
121
Prospective observational
45% (1 year)
Previous biologic therapy
Gender, concurrent steroid use at biologic initiation, high CRP, smoking status
50%
(85% with concomitant IMM)
Dose intensification of biologic therapy
Annunziata et al. [78]
16
Retrospective
62.5% (5 years)
Absence of normalized intestinal wall thickness
–
–
(% on IMM not available)
Ampuero et al. [44]
75
Retrospective
30.9% (1 year)
CRP > 5 mg/L
Gender, smoking status, location, duration of treatment
100%
(100% concomitant IMM)
Younger age at diagnosis
Molnar et al. [53]
50
Retrospective
56% (1 year)
Fistula
Location of disease
–
Smoking status
(86% concomitant IMM)
Papamichael et al. [66]
100
Retrospective (84% with concomitant IMM)
48% (10 years)
Age at diagnosis <25 (multivariate analysis)
Disease location, behavior (perianal), fistulizing disease, type of infliximab therapy (episodic or scheduled), number of infliximab infusions, CRP, previous ileocolonic resection, smoking at initiation of infliximab, IMM or type of IMM after infliximab cessation, positive ATIs during infliximab therapy or at the time of infliximab cessation
–
Ramos et al. [79]
25
Retrospective
16% (1.6 ± 1 year)
Not reported
Not reported
–
(% of IMM not reported)
Waugh et al. [54]
48
Retrospective
50% (1.3 year)
Nil identified
Age, gender, disease location, duration from diagnosis to the start of infliximab therapy, concomitant IMM, number of infliximab doses
–
(67% concomitant IMM)
35% remained well with no relapse at 7 years follow-up
UC
Farkas et al. [80]
51
Prospective observational
35% (0.3 year)
Previous biological therapy
Gender, smoking status, appendicectomy, disease extent, extraintestinal manifestation, concomitant IMM, previous surgery, dose intensification
94%
(100% concomitant IMM)
Munoz Villafranca et al. [81]
19
Prospective observational
25% (1–2 years)
Not reported
Not reported
–
(57.8% with concomitant IMM)
Fiorino et al. [82]
193
Retrospective
47.7% (median follow-up of 2 years)
Infliximab discontinuation
Age, disease extension, disease severity, previous therapies, smoking status
77%
(65.3% with concomitant IMM)
Absence of concomitant thiopurines
CD/UC
Bortlik et al. [83]
CD: 61
UC: 17
Prospective observational (77% of CD and 59% of UC with concomitant IMM)
CD: 18% (0.5 year), 41% (1 year), 49% (2 years)
Non-colonic location for CD, previous anti-TNF-α treatment, previous surgery
Type of anti-TNF-α agent, smoking status, disease behavior, corticosteroid therapy within 1 year before biologics withdrawal, concomitant IMM, CRP level, fecal calprotectin, anti-TNF-α trough levels at the time of anti-TNF-α withdrawal
82%
UC: 23% (0.6 year), 23% (1 year), 36% (2 years)
Dai et al. [49]
CD: 109
Prospective observational
CD: 21% (1 year)
Nil
Clinical remission, mucosal healing, gender, disease duration, smoking status, history of appendicectomy, location, behavior, extraintestinal manifestations, previous surgery, previous biological therapy, CRP level, effect of induction therapy
CD: 78.3%
UC: 107
(31% concomitant IMM)
UC: 14% (1 year)
UC: 66.7%
Hlavaty et al. [84]
CD:17
Prospective observational
Cohorts with deep remission, 18% (0.5 year), 27% (1 year)
Male
Type of IBD, age, disease duration, CD location, behavior, smoking status, previous surgery, type and duration of anti-TNF-α agent, concomitant azathioprine, fecal calprotectin, CRP, hemoglobin
100%
(36% with concomitant IMM for cohorts in clinical remission)
(64% with concomitant IMM for cohorts in deep remission)
UC: 5
Cohorts with clinical remission, 18% (0.5 year), 27% (1 year)
Molander et al. [67]
CD,17; UC, 30
Prospective observational (83% with concomitant IMM)
CD: 29% (1.1 year)
Nil identified
Age, gender, duration of disease, location, disease activity at discontinuation
100% (CD)
IBDU: 5
UC: 35% (1.1 year)
90% (UC)
Armuzzi et al. [55]
CD: 65
Retrospective (% of with concomitant IMM not reported)
Retrospective (71% with concomitant IMM)
CD: 49% [median 1.1(0.3–6.2) years]
Absence of mucosal healing
Not reported
–
UC: 31
UC: 41% [median 1.3(0.3–2.5) years]
High CRP
Casanova et al. [60]
CD: 717
UC: 338
24% (1 year)
Adalimumab (rather than infliximab)
Not available
75%
38% (2 years)
46% (3 years)
Elective discontinuation of anti-TNF-α therapy
56% (5 years)
Discontinuation of anti-TNF-α due to adverse events
Younger age at discontinuation
No maintenance IMM
Caviglia et al. [85]
CD: 29
Retrospective
CD: 69% [median 1.3 (0.4–2.5) years]
Not reported
Not reported
–
(100% CD and 33% UC with concomitant IMM)
UC: 9
UC: 56% [median 0.5 (0.3–1.3) years]
Ciria et al. [86]
CD:24
Retrospective (% of concomitant IMM not reported)
35% (median follow-up 1.7 years)
Absence of mucosal healing
Type of IBD
–
UC: 10
Farkas et al. [87]
CD:41
Retrospective (85% CD and 73% UC with concomitant IMM)
CD: 78% (0.4 year)
Nil identified
Clinical remission
81% (CD)
UC:22
UC: 59% (0.6 years)
Mucosal healing
54% (UC)
Luppino et al. [88]
CD: 21
UC: 10
Retrospective (100% with concomitant IMM)
42% (median time to relapse 1.5 years)
Longer disease duration
Not available
80%
Marino et al. [89]
CD: 8
UC: 2
Retrospective (20% with concomitant IMM)
CD: 75% (mean 1.2 (SD ± 0.7) years]
Not available
Not available
100%
UC: 0% (mean 1.7 years)
Steenholdt et al. [57]
CD: 53
UC: 28
Retrospective 86% concomitant IMM (CD and UC)
CD: 39% (1 year), 88% (10 years)
CD: longer disease duration
Not available
96% (CD)
UC: 25% (1 year), 60% (4.5 years)
71% (UC)
Gisbert et al. [40]
27 studies
Systematic review, Meta-analysis
CD: 38% (0.5 year), 40% (1 year), 49% (>2.1 years)
Younger age
–
80%
Smoking status
Longer disease duration
UC: 28% (1 year)
Fistulizing perianal CD
Low hemoglobin
High C-reactive protein
High fecal calprotectin
Absence of mucosal healing
Kennedy et al. [45]
146 CD, 20 UC; 11 cohort totaling 746 patients (meta-analysis)
Retrospective observational
Observational
CD: younger age at diagnosis (<22 years old)
Elevated white cell count > 5.25 × 109/L
Elevated fecal calprotectin (> 50μg/g)
Continued immunomodulator
88% (CD)
CD: 36% (1 year)
Mucosal healing
76% (UC/IBDU)
56% (2 year)
UC/IBDU: 42% (1 year)
UC: no predictive factor identified
47% (2 years)
Meta-analysis
CD: 39% (1 year)
Systematic review, Meta-analysis
UC/IBDU: 35% (1 year)
Torres et al. [12]
37 studies
Systematic review
50% (CD/UC), 2 years
Markers of active disease
–
54.7–100% (CD)
Poor prognostic factors including complicated or relapsing disease course
67–100% (UC)
Predictive Factors for Relapse
Multiple factors, both modifiable and non-modifiable, have been suggested to predict risk of relapse for IBD. These can broadly be classified into patient factors, disease factors (disease activity and disease phenotype), and treatment factors as illustrated in Table 10.2.
Table 10.2
Predictors of relapse following anti-TNF-α therapy withdrawal
UC (Ref.) | CD (Ref.) | |
---|---|---|
Patient factors | ||
Male | [41] | |
Young age at diagnosis | [66] | |
Smoking | ||
Disease factors | ||
Phenotypic picture | ||
Behavior | Fistulizing [53] | |
Location/extent | ||
Ileocolonic [52] | ||
Markers of disease activity | ||
Low hemoglobin | [41] | |
High C-reactive protein | ||
High leucocyte counts | [90] | [90] |
High fecal calprotectin | [56] | |
Absence of mucosal healing | [40] | [40] |
Absence of normalization of mucosal cytokine gene expression | [58] | |
Absence of normalization of mucosal TNF-α | [59] | |
Treatment factors | ||
Absence of conco mitant immunomodulator | [60] | [60] |
Previous immunomodulator failure | [64] | |
Late initiation of biologic therapy | [66]
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